Euro to CNY Exchange Rate: Trends and Tips for International Trade

The euro as the main currency in circulation in Europe, in foreign trade transactions have an important position. Foreign trade traders should keep an eye on the two exchange rates.

Ⅰ Trend of exchange rate changes

In the first half of the past 2024, the euro depreciated by nearly 1% against the RMB, specifically, the euro depreciated by nearly 3% against the US dollar in the first half of the year, while the RMB maintained a certain degree of resilience vis-à-vis the euro.In the second half of the year 2024, the volatility of the euro's exchange rate intensified.The euro's exchange rate against the RMB briefly recovered in August, but then fluctuated in September and October, with an overall depreciation trend.

In the coming months, there is some volatility in the exchange rate trend of the euro against the renminbi, but the overall trend shows a slight increase. According to 30rates' forecast:

• February 2025: the exchange rate is expected to fluctuate between 7.394 and 7.792, ending the month at approximately 7.612, up 1.3% from the beginning of the month.
• March 2025: the exchange rate is expected to fluctuate between 7.454 and 7.778, ending the month at approximately 7.635, up 0.3% from the beginning of the month.
• April 2025: the exchange rate is expected to fluctuate between 7.475 and 7.703, ending the month at approximately 7.589, down 0.6% from the beginning of the month.

Overall, the EUR/CNY exchange rate is likely to rise slightly in the short term. The euro has depreciated against the yuan over the past year, though there have been signs of a recent recovery.

Ⅱ Looking at forecasts from other institutions

• CICC thinks the yuan could strengthen in early 2025 for a number of reasons, including a narrowing of the U.S.-China spread and tariff issues.
• LongForecast forecasts the exchange rate in May 2025 could fluctuate between 7.511 and 7.739. And it is expected to fall to 7.625 at the end of the month, a decline of 1.4%.
• 21 Finance, on the other hand, believes the euro could be weak in 2025.

In addition, analysts note that China's economic recovery and related policies could also have an impact on the exchange rate. If China's economy recovers strongly, it could boost exports from Asian and European economies, which in turn could affect exchange rate movements.

Overall, the euro against the Chinese yuan exchange rate in 2025 may be volatile, but there is an upward trend in the short term, the specific trend will depend on changes in the Chinese economy and the global economic environment.

Ⅲ The impact of the change of the exchange rate of the euro against the renminbi on the trade between China and Europe

Changes in the exchange rate of the euro against the renminbi have a multifaceted impact on Sino-European trade, as shown below:

1. Changes in export competitiveness

The depreciation of the euro makes the price of Chinese goods exported to Europe rise, reducing the competitiveness of Chinese goods. However, since global trade is mostly settled in US dollars, the price of goods from Europe may also rise, so the impact is not significant. On the contrary, the depreciation of the euro makes the prices of European goods exported to China more competitive, stimulating import demand in the Chinese market, especially in the areas of high-end manufacturing, automobiles and luxury goods.

2. Changes in import costs

For Chinese importers, the depreciation of the euro has lowered the RMB cost of importing European goods, which is especially beneficial to manufacturing enterprises that rely on European raw materials, components and technical equipment, such as Chinese automobile manufacturers that can import European high-end components at lower costs. At the same time, lower import costs also help Chinese enterprises to introduce advanced technology and promote industrial upgrading.

3. Challenges for Chinese exporters

The depreciation of the euro means the relative appreciation of the RMB, which makes the price competitiveness of Chinese exports to Europe decline. In order to cope with this challenge, Chinese exporters may need to reduce costs, improve product quality, and even adjust their export structure to high value-added, technology-intensive products.

4. Pressure on European importers

The appreciation of the RMB makes it more expensive for European importing firms to buy goods from China, which may put pressure on European SMEs that rely on low-cost goods from China. Some European firms may consider restructuring their supply chains to find other more cost-competitive sources of supply.

5. Adjustment of trade structure and trade balance

Exchange rate changes have prompted both China and Europe to adjust their trade structures. China may reduce exports of low value-added products and increase exports of high-end manufacturing and technology products, while Europe may consolidate its advantages in high-end manufacturing and luxury goods. At the same time, the depreciation of the euro may lead to a widening of Europe's trade surplus with China.

6. Enterprise countermeasures

Foreign trade enterprises can hedge exchange rate risks through financial instruments such as futures or options, as well as respond to the challenges posed by exchange rate fluctuations through product structure adjustment and supply chain optimization.

On the whole, the fluctuation of the exchange rate of the euro against the renminbi has both favorable and unfavorable impacts on Sino-European trade. European exporters benefit from improved price competitiveness, while Chinese importers enjoy lower import costs. Chinese exporters face the challenge of declining price competitiveness, while European importers need to cope with the pressure of rising import costs. Both sides need to respond to the changes by adjusting product mix, optimizing supply chains and strengthening exchange rate risk management.

You can search for real time exchange rate through XTransfer exchange rate platform to monitor the latest rate.