The best time to exchange Chinese Yuan (CNY) to US Dollars (USD)

To determine the best time to exchange Chinese Yuan (CNY) for US Dollars (USD), a number of factors need to be considered, including the current exchange rate situation, exchange rate trends, market liquidity, individual needs, and the macroeconomic environment. Below are some analyses and recommendations to help you make a more informed exchange decision.

 

Ⅰ Current Exchange Rate Situation and Short-term Trend

As of February 6, 2025, 1 RMB is equivalent to 0.1372 USD. Although the exchange rate fluctuates more frequently in the short term, the overall trend is relatively stable. Fluctuations in the exchange rate are mainly influenced by factors such as market supply and demand, economic data and the international political situation.

According to forecasts, in February 2025, the high of the RMB/USD exchange rate will be 7.410, the low will be 7.104, and the average will be 7.244. This means that the exchange rate is likely to fluctuate between 7.104 and 7.410 in the short term. If you plan on exchanging US dollars in the short term, keeping an eye on these ranges of volatility will help to capitalize on the more favorable times.

The overall exchange rate is expected to rise in 2026, with the average rate in January 2026 expected to be 7.179. You may also want to consider exchanging in 2026 if you have more flexibility in your exchange schedule.

 

Ⅱ Long-term exchange rate trends

For the whole year of 2025, the overall exchange rate of RMB to USD shows a trend of decreasing and then increasing. For example, the average exchange rate in March is expected to be 7.191, while the average exchange rate in July is expected to be 7.365. Considering this trend, if you hold RMB and are not in a hurry to convert to USD, you can convert in the lower exchange rate period in March or April to get a more favorable exchange rate.

 

Ⅲ Market Liquidity and Trading Hours

The foreign exchange market is more liquid and less expensive at certain times of the day. The active hours of the forex market vary throughout the day. 3pm to 4pm London time (11pm to 12am BST) is usually the most active time in the market, when the exchange rate fluctuates less and the trading volume is high. If you are in a hurry to exchange, it is recommended to choose this time to trade. In addition, 6am to 9am BST is one of the lower exchange rates, so it's a good time to look for a lower exchange rate. If you need to complete your exchange as soon as possible, consider trading at the beginning of the week (e.g. Monday or Tuesday) to avoid delays due to weekend market closures.

 

Ⅳ Personal Needs and Risk Appetite

1. For users with urgent needs

 it is recommended to exchange during relatively stable exchange rates and high liquidity in order to avoid the risks associated with exchange rate fluctuations.

2.  For users for long-term investment

On the contrary, if your exchange is for long-term investment, you can choose to exchange when the exchange rate is lower, in order to obtain more assets in U.S. dollars.

 

Ⅴ Global Economic Situation and Other Influencing Factors

Factors such as the global economic situation, interest rate policies, and international political situations can have a significant impact on exchange rates. For example, when global economic growth slows down or major economies are at risk of recession, the U.S. dollar tends to become a safe-haven asset, demand rises and the U.S. dollar may appreciate. Therefore, paying attention to changes in the global economy and international trade is a factor that cannot be ignored when making exchange rate conversion decisions.

 

To summarize

Determining the best time to exchange RMB for USD needs to be weighed against a number of factors, including personal needs, market conditions, and the external economic environment. If you need to exchange in the near future, it is recommended that you choose a time when the exchange rate fluctuates less and the liquidity is higher; if you are more flexible, you can pay attention to the future exchange rate trend and choose to exchange at a lower exchange rate time. In addition, if you plan to exchange a large amount of foreign exchange, it is best to do it in advance, because each person can only exchange 5,000 U.S. dollars in cash per day, which needs to be accomplished through multiple transactions when exceeding this limit.

 

You can check exchange rate in real time and its tendency on XTransfer exchange rate platform.