Forecast of Chinese yuan to US dollar exchange rate in 2025 and analysis of influencing factors

With Trump taking office, the international economy will undergo various changes, and how will the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan change in 2025? This article will analyze in detail.

 

Ⅰ. The major financial institutions forecast

Various major financial institutions have made various predictions on the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar in 2025:

 

Institution Name	Forecast Viewpoint
Goldman Sachs	The CNY/USD exchange rate is expected to face depreciation pressure in 2025, and is generally forecast to fluctuate between 7.4 and 7.6. The exchange rate is likely to dip further in the first quarter of 2025.
Societe Generale Research	The Chinese yuan is expected to remain stable before the Chinese New Year. If Trump announces a 10% tariff hike on January 20, the pressure may be released after the Chinese New Year; if no tariff hike is mentioned, the CNY may rebound on the exhaustion of the bearishness and rise with the fall in the USD index.
Huaxi Securities	The US dollar is expected to remain strong in 2025, and the Chinese yuan may depreciate moderately against the US dollar but remain stable against a basket of currencies. The biggest uncertainty is the strength and pace of Trump's tariff policy implementation. The USD/CNY exchange rate is expected to fluctuate between 7.3-7.5 when the USD index is in the 107-110 range.
BOC Securities	There are three possibilities for the future trend of the RMB exchange rate: 1. the U.S. economy “soft landing”, the U.S. dollar strong, the return of two-way fluctuations in the yuan. 2. the U.S. economy “not”, the U.S. dollar strong. 2. the U.S. economy “does not land”, the dollar is again strong, the RMB is under pressure. 3. the U.S. economy “hard landing”, the dollar is strong, the RMB is back to two-way fluctuations. 3. The U.S. economy will have a “hard landing”, the U.S. dollar will weaken in trend, and the possibility of the RMB exchange rate turning point will increase.
Yicai	In 2025, the USD/CNY exchange rate will fluctuate under the game of “fiscal relief” and “tariff increase”. The USDCNY is expected to remain oscillating in the 7.10-7.35 range, and trade frictions may push the exchange rate to break through the 7.40-7.50 range gradually, with volatility expanding compared with 2024.
Economic Observer	The questionnaire survey showed: 50% of respondents believe that the RMB will depreciate slightly (no more than 3%) against the US dollar in 2025; 27.27% of the respondents predicted a limited appreciation of RMB (within 3% or 3% to 5%).
Soochow Securities	Chief Economist Lu Zhe expects the USD-RMB exchange rate to remain in the range of 7.10 to 7.35 before the tariff hike policy on China comes into effect in 2025. A new round of trade friction may push the exchange rate to break through the upper limit to 7.40 to 7.50.
Guangkai Chief Industrial Research Institute	Economist Lian Ping predicted that the RMB exchange rate will fluctuate between 7.0 and 7.5 in 2025, mainly influenced by domestic economic policies and international market factors. The central bank may implement a moderately loose monetary policy to promote economic growth, but it may also increase the pressure for RMB depreciation.

 

All in all, comprehensive institutions predicted that in 2025, the exchange rate trend of the Chinese yuan will be affected by multiple factors, the overall “stable with fluctuations” characteristics. In the short term, the CNY is expected to remain stable before the Chinese New Year, but the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy may put pressure on the exchange rate after the holiday. In the medium and long term, the strength of the U.S. dollar and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is still the key variable: if the U.S. economy “soft landing” or “no landing”, the dollar may remain strong, the yuan against the dollar or moderate depreciation; if the U.S. economy has a “hard landing”, the U.S. dollar may remain strong; if the U.S. economy “hard landing”, the U.S. dollar may remain strong. If the U.S. economy has a “hard landing”, the weakening of the U.S. dollar may provide an opportunity for the yuan to rebound. In addition, the escalation of trade friction may push the USD/CNY exchange rate to break through the 7.40-7.50 range, and the volatility has expanded. Overall, the R exchange rate in 2025 may show a “top, bottom” range oscillation pattern, the main fluctuation range is expected to be between 7.0-7.6, the specific trend will depend on the domestic and foreign economic policy, the trade environment and the market's expectations of the integrated role.

II. Influencing factors

The global economic growth rate shows a divergent pattern: according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the global economic growth rate is forecast to be 3.3% in both 2025 and 2026, which is consistent with the October 2024 forecast. In particular, the US economic growth rate is expected to be revised upwards, while growth in other regions has been revised downwards. The relative strength of the U.S. economy is likely to support the U.S. dollar exchange rate, which in turn will exert some depreciation pressure on the RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar. In addition, the performance of emerging market economies will also indirectly affect the RMB exchange rate. If growth in emerging markets slows down, it may lead to weaker global trade demand, affecting China's exports and thus exerting pressure on the RMB exchange rate. However, the stable recovery and sustained growth of the Chinese economy will enhance market confidence in the Chinese yuan and provide strong support for the exchange rate.

 

1. Impact of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy

The Fed's monetary policy direction is one of the key factors affecting the Chinese yuan exchange rate against the USD. 2025, the Fed's rate hike or rate cut is expected to have a direct impact on the USD index. If the U.S. economy achieves a “soft landing”, the expectation of rate cuts may lead to a stage of weakening of the U.S. dollar, thus easing the depreciation pressure on the RMB. However, if U.S. inflation rebounds or Trump's policies push up the fiscal deficit, the U.S. dollar may strengthen again, posing a challenge to the RMB exchange rate. The US dollar index in 2025 may show a trend of “first down, then up”, the expectation of interest rate cuts at the beginning of the year may make the US dollar weaker, but the later rebound in inflation or geopolitical risks may push the US dollar back to strength, increasing the uncertainty of the Chinese yuan exchange rate.

2. Impact of China-US trade relations

Uncertainty in US-China trade relations is an important influence on the Chinese yuan exchange rate against the US dollar in 2025. Trump's second term may impose tariffs on China, which will be a drag on China's export growth and in turn exert depreciation pressure on the RMB exchange rate. However, if China and the U.S. ease tensions through economic and trade consultations, it may support the performance of the CNY exchange rate in stages. In addition, China has reduced its reliance on the US market by expanding into markets such as the EU and Southeast Asia, and the diversification of its trade structure will enhance the resilience of the Chinese economy and mitigate the negative impact of trade frictions on the RMB exchange rate.

3. Impact of other global economic factors

Geopolitical risks and global capital flows are also important factors affecting the Chinese yuan exchange rate against the US dollar. Geopolitical tensions may trigger a rise in risk aversion in the market, driving capital flows to safe-haven assets such as the U.S. dollar, thus creating depreciation pressure on the RMB exchange rate. Meanwhile, changes in the global economic situation will affect the direction of capital flows. If global economic uncertainty increases, capital may flow out of emerging markets, including China, forming pressure on the CNY exchange rate. Conversely, if China's economic fundamentals are sound and market expectations are favorable, it may attract foreign capital inflows and support the RMB exchange rate.

On balance, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar in 2025 will show two-way fluctuations under the influence of multiple factors such as global economic trends, the Fed's monetary policy, US-China trade relations and geopolitical risks. Despite certain pressures, the RMB exchange rate is generally expected to remain fundamentally stable. Most experts predict that the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar will fluctuate within the range of 7.0 to 7.5, and the specific trend will depend on the combined effect of domestic and foreign economic policies and market expectations.

 

Ⅲ. Foreign trade transactions in how to avoid losses caused by exchange rate changes

In the face of changing exchange rates, foreign trade practitioners in foreign trade transactions how to maximize the avoidance of losses caused by exchange rate fluctuations, has become a crucial topic. In previous articles, we have introduced how to manage the CNY/USD exchange rate in foreign trade transaction and explored how to make USD-CNY transactions more cost-effective. You can read these articles to learn more about the specifics of trading the CNY against the USD.